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 he world's use of energy will continue its rapid growth
at least to the year 2020, particularly in the developing nations,
according to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) "International
Energy Outlook 2000" ("IEO2000"). Under current
policies, EIA estimates overall energy consumption will rise
60 percent from 1997 to 2020. Faster than average growth is expected
for the developing nations (121 percent), world natural gas use
(104 percent), and world net electricity consumption (76 percent).
 This
year's "Outlook" has slightly more rapid growth in
carbon emissions than last year's estimates. Higher emissions
estimates are attributed to revisions in historical data and
a higher forecast for oil consumption in the former Soviet Union
(FSU). EIA estimates world carbon emissions will grow 40 percent
from 1990 to 2010, and 72 percent from 1990 to 2020.
The higher
forecast for world carbon emissions is, in large part, a result
of changes in the forecast for the FSU. Changes in the historical
and projected carbon emissions for the FSU explain almost half
of the increase between this year's "IEO2000" and last
year's report in 2010; and two-thirds of the difference in 2020.
Historical data revisions in the region resulted in a 47 million
metric ton increase in estimated emissions in this region for
the historical year 1996. Moreover, stronger economic performance
in Russia and Ukraine the region's two largest economies has
led to a 12-percent increase in the energy consumption projections
for the FSU in 2020, as compared with last year's report.
Carbon emissions
in China are projected to increase by 836 million metric tons
between 1990 and 2010, and an another 634 million metric tons
are projected to be added between 2010 and 2020. Emissions in
China surpass those of the United States by the end of the forecast
horizon in the "IEO2000" reference case. Much of the
increase in China, as well as other parts of developing Asia,
is attributed to continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels, especially
coal.
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The
rate of energy and carbon emissions growth would be considerably
higher, except for continued improvements in energy intensity.
In the "IEO2000" forecast, energy intensity (defined
as energy consumption per dollar of gross domestic product) in
the industrialized world is expected to improve (decrease) by
1.1 percent per year between 1997 and 2020, slightly slower than
the 1.3-percent annual improvement for the region between 1970
and 1997. Energy intensity is also projected to improve in the
developing countries by 1.0 percent per year as their economies
begin to behave more like those of the industrialized countries
as a result of improving standards of living that accompany the
projected expansion. Intensity in Eastern Europe and the FSU
is also projected to improve in concert with expected recovery
from the economic and social declines of the early 1990s, though
they still remain high relative to the industrialized and developing
regions through 2020.
China enjoyed
particularly strong improvement in its energy intensity over
the past two decades, attributable to the strong economic growth
experienced in the country, falling from a high of 117.2 thousand
BTU per dollar of GDP in 1976 to 39.6 thousand BTU per dollar
in 1997. Between 1978 and 1995, gross domestic product increased
by an average 10.0 percent per year in China, whereas energy
use grew by 4.2 percent per year over this same time period.
Other report
highlights include:
- World electricity consumption increases by
76 percent in the "IEO2000" reference case, from 12
trillion kilowatt-hours in 1997 to 22 trillion kilowatt-hours
in 2020. Long-term growth in electricity consumption is expected
to be strongest in the developing countries of Asia, followed
by those of Central and South America. To a large extent, future
growth in the world's electricity generation will depend upon
progress made in connecting more of the world's population to
national electricity grids. Electricity demand and investment
in the electric power sector infrastructure have responded positively
to the recent net improvement in global economic conditions,
and to the movement toward privatization in many parts of the
world.
- Natural gas is projected to be the fastest-growing
component of primary world energy consumption, more than doubling
between 1997 and 2020. Gas accounts for the largest increment
in electricity generation (41 percent of the total increment
of energy used for electricity generation). Combined-cycle gas
turbine power plants offer some of the highest commercially available
plant efficiencies. Natural gas is also environmentally attractive
because it emits less sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide, and particulate
matter than does oil or coal.
- Oil currently provides a larger share of
world energy consumption than any other energy source and is
expected to remain in that position throughout the forecast period.
In the industrialized countries, most of the growth in oil use
is projected for the transportation sector, where few alternatives
are currently economical. In the developing countries, the transportation
sector also shows the fastest projected growth in oil use; however,
in contrast to the industrialized countries, oil use for purposes
other than transportation is projected to contribute 41 percent
of the total oil increase. The growth in nontransportation oil
use in the developing world is, in part, caused by the substitution
of petroleum products for noncommercial fuels (such as wood burning
for home heating and cooking) as incomes rise and the energy
infrastructure matures.
Printed
copies of "IEO2000" are available from the US Government
Printing Office or through EIA's National Energy Information
Center, Room 1E-238, Forrestal Building, Washington, DC 20585,
202/586-8800. The report is also available on EIA's Web Site
at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.
The World Energy Projection System, the model used to generate
the projections that appear in "IEO2000," is available
on EIA's Internet Web Site: www.eia.doe.gov.
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