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 report
released by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change concludes
that developing countries can reduce emissions from power generation
while maintaining or improving economic growth.
 Current projections
show a near tripling of carbon dioxide emissions from electric
power in developing countries over the next 20 years, which represents
10 percent of all projected emissions. The role of developing
countries in any eventual international protocol on climate change
is one of the major outstanding issues in determining long-term
equitable commitments and global participation in a climate change
regime.
"The
findings in this study - Developing Countries and Global Climate
Change - represent a major step forward in the climate change
debate," said Eileen Claussen, executive director, Pew Center
on Global Climate Change. "This study shows that developing
countries do not have to choose between protecting the environment
and ensuring their economic future - they can do both."
The study
was conducted for the Pew Center by RAND, a nonprofit corporation
that seeks to improve public policy and decision-making through
research and analysis.
The report
assesses the $68 billion likely to be invested annually in new
generation capacity. While "business as usual" trends
nearly triple carbon dioxide emissions within 20 years, the report
details four alternative paths that decrease carbon dioxide and
other emissions relative to current expectations, without impeding
economic growth.
First, including
the costs of electricity delivery - not just generation - makes
planning and investment decisions more efficient and makes distributed
renewable energy more viable, decreasing carbon dioxide emissions
by up to 2.5 percent.
Second, increasing
privatization of the electricity sector could reduce carbon dioxide
by up to one percent and boost economic benefits by up to five
percent.
Third, increasing
the use of natural gas and renewables could reduce carbon dioxide
emissions by almost 25 percent with the same economic benefits.
Fourth, increasing
the efficiency of electricity supply and demand could reduce
carbon dioxide emissions by up to ten percent.
The findings
were based on an aggregated analysis and may not hold for individual
countries.
"The
study findings offer a blueprint for progress," said Claussen.
"But progress in the developing world will not build itself.
The industrialized world has an important role to play in supporting
reforms that will allow these benefits to accrue."
Claussen also
noted that participation in the proposed "Clean Development
Mechanism" established in the global warming treaty or other
international mechanisms could increase the available up-front
financing to accomplish these reforms.
This overview
report will be followed by five detailed case studies examining
electric power generation in Argentina, Brazil, China, India
and the Republic of Korea.
The Pew Center
was established in May 1998 by the Pew Charitable Trusts, one
of the nation's largest philanthropies and an influential voice
in efforts to improve the quality of America's environment. The
Pew Center is conducting studies, launching public education
efforts, promoting climate change solutions globally and working
with businesses to develop marketplace solutions to reduce greenhouse
gases.
The Pew Center
includes the Business Environmental Leadership Council, which
is composed of 21 major, largely Fortune 500 corporations all
working with the Pew Center to address issues related to climate
change. The companies do not contribute financially to the Pew
Center - it is solely supported by contributions from charitable
foundations. 
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