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 ne hundred years from now, democratically determined
population- control practices and sound resource-management policies
could have the planet's 2 billion people thriving in harmony
with the environment. Lacking these approaches, a new Cornell
University study suggests, 12 billon miserable humans will suffer
a difficult life on Earth by the year 2100.
 "Of
course, reducing population and using resources wisely will be
a challenging task in the coming decades," says David Pimentel,
lead author of the report titled "Will Limits of the Earth's
Resources Control Human Numbers?" in the first issue of
the journal Environment, Development and Sustainability.
"It will
be much more difficult," Pimentel says, "to survive
in a world without voluntary controls on population growth and
ever diminishing supplies of the Earth's resources."
Even at a
reduced world population of 2 billion in AD 2100, life for the
average Earth dweller will not be as luxurious as it is for many
Americans today. But the lifestyle won't be as wasteful of resources,
either, the Cornell ecologist predicts. Some observers are seeing
early signs that nature is taking a hand at reducing human populations
through malnutrition and disease. According to the report, global
climate change is beginning to contribute to the food and disease
problems.
"With
a democratically determined population policy that respects basic
individual rights, with sound resource-use policies, plus the
support of science and technology to enhance energy supplies
and protect the integrity of the environment," the report
concludes, "an optimum population of 2 billion for the Earth
can be achieved."
Then the fortunate
2 billion will be free from poverty and starvation, living in
an environment capable of sustaining human life with dignity,
the report suggests, adding a cautionary note: "We must
avoid letting human numbers continue to increase and surpass
the limit of Earth's natural resources and forcing natural forces
to control our number by disease, malnutrition and violent conflicts
over resources."
Among the
key points in the report:
- The world population is projected to double
in about 50 years.
- Even if a worldwide limit of 2.1 children
per couple were adopted tomorrow, Earth's human population would
continue to increase before stabilizing at around 12 billion
in more than 60 years. The major reason for continued growth
is "population momentum," due to the predominantly
young age structure of the world population.
- The US population has doubled during the
past 60 years to 270 million and, at the current growth rate,
is projected to double again, to 540 million, in the next 75
years. Each year our nation adds 3 million people (including
legal immigrants) to its population, plus an estimated 400,000
illegal immigrants.
- Increasing US and global population will
place restrictions on certain freedoms: freedom to travel and
commute to work quickly and efficiently, freedom to visit and
enjoy natural areas, freedom to select desired foods and freedom
to be effectively represented by government
- Today, more than 3 billion people suffer
from malnutrition, the largest number and proportion of the world
population in history, according to the World Health Organization.
Malnutrition increases the susceptibility to diseases such as
diarrhea and malaria.
- One reason for the increase in malnutrition
is that per capita production of grain has been declining since
1983. Grains provide 80 percent to 90 percent of the world's
food. Each additional human further reduces available food per
capita.
- The reasons for this per capita decrease
in food production are a 20 percent decline in cropland per capita,
a 15 percent decrease in water for irrigation and a 23 percent
drop in the use of fertilizers.
- Biotechnology and other technologies apparently
have not been implemented fast enough to prevent declines in
per capita food production during the past 17 years.
- Considering the resources likely to be available
in AD 2100, the optimal world population would be about 2 billion,
with a standard of living about half that of the United States
in the 1990s, or at the standard experienced by the average European.
The
study was funded by Cornell University. In addition to Pimentel,
authors of the Environment, Development and Sustainability report
include Owen Bailey, Paul Kim, Elizabeth Mullaney, Joy Calabrese,
Laura Walman, Fred Nelson nd Xiangjun Yao, all students at Cornell
University. 
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cornell.edu; www.news.cornell.edu.