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 f California's climate becomes warmer and wetter due
to global warming in the decades ahead, as many experts predict,
then the state could face a future fraught with water shortages,
wildfires and adverse affects on its habitat, economy and quality
of life as soon as 2030.
 That
is the prediction of a study released today by the Ecological
Society of America and the Union of Concerned Scientists, which
includes major contributions by three University of California,
Santa Barbara scientists. "The bottom line is that climate
change is real," said Frank Davis, a geography professor
at UCSB. "It will affect all Californians, and is a topic
that should be discussed broadly by all citizens."
Also adding
expertise to the two-year study, which calls on the public and
state officials to begin to formulate mitigation measures, were
John Melack, a UCSB ecology, evolution and marine biology professor;
and Steve Gaines, director of the uni-versity's Marine Science
Institute and also a professor of ecology, evolution and marine
biology. In all, seven scientists participated in the study.
Based on current
weather data, scientists believe California's average winter
temperatures will run 5 to 6 degrees warmer between 2030 and
2050, said Melack, who studied how climate change might affect
water availability and quality. That means more precipitation
falling as rain and less as snow, which could lead to more winter
flooding and a smaller spring mountain snow pack, he said. With
less water stored as snow, the state will find it more difficult
to maintain water supplies through summers expected to be 1 to
2 degrees hotter. "There will be too much water at the wrong
time and too little when we need it."
Agriculture
could be hard-hit in a water competition with domestic and industrial
use, a battle already ongoing as the state's rapid population
growth and development continue. Particularly vulnerable would
be crops such as grapes, cotton and alfalfa that require large
irrigation allotments. Hotter, dryer summers also would likely
lead to an increase in wildfires that endanger citizens' lives
and property, said Davis, who studied those concerns. "There's
a real chance that wildfires could become more frequent,"
he said.
The state's
magnificent plant and animal populations will be affected as
well. Scientists predict a shift of wildlife, forests and grasslands
to higher altitudes and more northerly locations. The redwood
forests of northern California could be endangered, as well as
the kelp forests of the southern part of the state. The numbers
of disease-carrying rodents -- such as hantavirus-carrying mice
-- could go up.
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"If
you want to know what our grandchildren will see when they go
scuba diving in the Santa Barbara Channel 50 years from now,
just take a look off the coast of Baja California; that's what
they will see -- a completely different mix of species,"
said Gaines. "The distribution of species will slide toward
the poles."
Gaines drew
a dramatic picture of the results of just a few degrees of temperature
change in the years ahead. "Many people think that an increase
of 3 degrees is no big deal, they compare it to the larger changes
from day to night, or day to day," said Gaines. "But
we have clear evidence now that the changes in the last 25 to
50 years have had a major effect on tidepool invertebrates, fish
and zooplankton.
"With
an increase in ocean temperature you get a decrease in available
nutrients, which changes the whole food chain," he said.
Besides changes
in the general pattern of species distribution caused by climate
change, Gaines mentioned that there is also an increase in extreme
events like El Niño. Changes at the bottom of the food
chain caused by the warmer water temperature of El Niño
have ramifications all the way up to marine mammals. "You
end up with high mortality of baby seals on the Channel Islands,
because their mothers can't get enough food," said Gaines.
"In some
ways, the impact in California is accentuated by the rich biodiversity
of the state," he said. "But that makes the influences
on our systems more complex."
Gaines emphasized
the importance of planning for a warmer future. "For example,
in setting aside a biological reserve, we need to think about
what the area will be like 50 years from now."
He noted the
special role that Californians can play as events related to
global climate change unfold. "These are globally-driven
processes and California can't completely solve the problem,
but we need to provide an example as we grapple with the social,
biological and ecological conditions within the state."
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But
all is not lost, researchers say. The state's problems might
be limited with creative forethought and planning. California
might even become a beacon for other governments in mitigating
global warming.
"This
is a quite detailed report written for policy makers," Melack
said. "We want the state of California to do what it does
best: be a leader. When California does something, people listen.
If California says it is going to put limits on automobile exhaust
emissions, then people listen because it is a big market."
The report
has a list of places to begin. "We do think that there are
steps which can be taken by Californians to reduce the risks,"
Davis said. "For example, we need to reduce our share of
global carbon dioxide emissions, limit the footprint of future
development and do a better job of allocating our water resources.
We must better protect biodiversity by creating an expanded,
well connected system of nature reserves, especially at low elevations
and in coastal areas."
The report,
titled "Confronting Climate Change in California,"
at the Union of Concerned Scientists' website, www.ucsusa.org.
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